Page 6 - Diplomatic Voice 2014 -3

FORUM Lessons from the Arab Spring: Expectations and Current Realities Contributed by Elmira Akhmetova The recent outbreak of the Arab old Arab tyrants being toppled at the Nations and the 2012 peace plan of Spring is a manifestation of the behest of a new generation of young Kofi Annan, the former UN Secre- absence of good governance inclu- idealists, inspired by democracy, tary-General, practically collapsed, ding its main components such as united by Facebook and excited by with infractions of the ceasefire by democracy, moderation, liberalism the notion of opening up to a wider both sides resulting in thousands of and justice in the Middle Eastern and world.” No doubt, youths are the most casualties. North African (MENA) countries. It is optimistic and assertive stratum of often identified as the birth of a every society, and they played the According to Sarkis Abu-Zayd, a “collective Arab consciousness.” This major role in the Middle Eastern trans- Lebanese journalist and editor in chief revolutionary wave of mass demon- formation. In addition, the youths repre- of the Tahawoulat newspaper, the strations and protests (both violent sent a significant portion of the MENA conflicting parties in Syria are bound and non-violent), riots and civil wars population. At present, more than half by tribal rather than religious or secta- brought a significant change to the of the Muslim population is under the rian cohesion. In the cases of Libya entire region. The both positive and age of 25 and the needs and wants of and Yemen too, with the Arab Spring, negative facets of the Arab Spring such a significant portion of society tribal conflicts that were inherent in the have extensively been elaborated by should not be neglected. For decades, social fabric floated to the surface. As scores of academicians, political however, Arab youth remained Abu-Zayd pointed out, tribal clashes in scientists, journalists and writers. In marginalised and isolated and exclu- various Libyan regions have today this occasion, let me outline the most ded from decision-making process. reached a point that threatens seces- essential four lessons from the Arab They have been the most frustrated sion and the establishment of a tribal Spring. stratum in their societies with the federation which will likely be accom- methods of governmance. panied with chaos, massive loss and Firstly, the full episode of the Arab terror. Spring confirmed the strength of the Secondly, the ongoing political trans- will of the masses. Upheavals across formation and the recent elections did In Egypt, the earliest attempts of the MENA region were mainly sparked not mark the end to post-colonial democracy also failed. Field Marshal due to the negligence of citizens’ dictatorship and despotism in the Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrew the first rights by their respective govern- MENA region. The outcomes of the democratically elected president in the ments. For decades, the region has Arab Spring did not signify the arrival entire history of Egypt, exterminated been exploited by those who hunted of a Western-type of democracy and those who opposed him and paved for controlling the resources and liberalism in the Muslim world either. the way for his absolute rule. Ironically, wealth of the nations, with no concern Rather, the Arab Spring heavily Sisi claims that his actions against the for their people’s will. The citizens’ triggered structural changes that Egyptian people were all done in rights for well-being, protection and shook the Arab swamp. Before bear- response to the demands of the Egyp- human security as well as to partici- ing any benefits, it generated wide- tian people. A new cycle of military pate in decision-making pro- spread chaos, civil wars, economic dictatorship might become a reality in cesses were largely ignored. They depression, bloodshed and insecurity. Libya as well. were not given any opportunity to It has now opened a door that could amend the unfair systems through lead toward either stability and im- It seems that rapid political and social peaceful means endorsed by the provement or regression and destruc- transformations are commonly not for Shari’ah such as by participation in fair tion. Evils of sectarianism and triba- the benefit of the people. People in the elections, consultation, the assess- lism have appeared very clearly and post-Spring countries are today ment of the conducts of the govern- are now threatening societal and state subjected to widespread social and ment and freedom of expression. The unity in the entire region. The conflict economic instability, poverty, injustice MENA population is exhausted from in Syria for instance, which began as and discrimination. Radicalisation and the unending cycle of despotism, peaceful demonstrations against the violence are significantly increasing in economic and political exploitation, Ba’ath regime under President Bashar these countries as well. According to poverty and public cruelty. They opted Al-Assad, soon turned into a civil war the Egyptian Centre for Economic and for change and certainly, for a quick with sectarian and tribal dimensions. Social Rights (ECESR), since the 3 and substantial change. According to the Britain-based Syrian July military coup until 11 November Observatory for Human Rights report, 2013, 2,665 people were killed in Besides, the Arab Spring manifested at least 160,000 people were killed in Egypt. Statistics up until 3 December the potential of the youth. Already in the Syrian conflict between March also show that as many as 16,000 March 2011, in the early days of the 2011 and May 2014, many of whom were injured in violence which swept Arab Spring, Declan McCullagh were civilians and children. The real the country. 13,145 arrests took place illustrated the political disruption in the figure is likely to be much higher. in 718 incidents. It seems that the MENA region as the “sight of corrupt Ceasefire attempts by the United change of a ruler or government alone 6 bulletin@idfr.gov.my